The AM Call: Where Do We Go From Here?

• As we enter the fall season, it is important to note that September and October have historically been rather volatile months for equities. The first week of the month was true to form, with broad equity indices lower on the week. Last week was relatively quiet for macro data, although we note that various indicators such as ISM Services, GDPNow, and weekly initial jobless claims continue to indicate that the economy is in robust form.

• The question then becomes, “When is good news bad news?” to the extent that it would indicate the Fed has more to do. On this front, we note that the Beige book stated “Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August” and that “Job growth was subdued across the nation.”
• Although our baseline view has been that a U.S. recession is likely, we acknowledge that the current data supports a soft-landing thesis. We still have worries over the strength of the U.S. consumer, the potential economic impacts of a UAW strike, the resumption of student loan repayments, the deep freeze in commercial real estate, and the lagged impacts of such an aggressive Fed tightening campaign, but, so far, the U.S. economy has remained resilient. The Fed is clearly going to stay on hold for the September FOMC meeting given this backdrop.
• Stocks: All major indexes posted losses for the week as investors took gains from the year-to-date rally and ponder monetary policy in anticipation for this week’s CPI number. Earnings releases where light for the week, as Zscaler (ZS), Gitlab (GTLB) and UiPath (PATH) beat estimates, while Chargepoint (CHPT) and C3 Ai (AI) disappointed and Asana (ASAN), DocuSign (DOCU), Restauration Hardware (RH) and Kroger (KR) posted mixed figures. In corporate news, the WSJ reported that China’s government is blocking use of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone by all government officials sending shares down. Also, Tesla (TSLA) revealed in an investor meeting that Q3 production and deliveries will contract from Q2 due to planned factory shutdowns, as some analysts warn that the company could disappoint Q3 expectations for profit margin given vehicle discount made in the period. AirBnB (ABNB) will join the S&P 500 Index, while Enbridge (ENB) will acquire Dominion (D) creating the largest natural gas utility in the country.

The Week Ahead

• This is the last week of macro data before the September FOMC. On Tuesday, we get August CPI. On a YoY basis, headline CPI is expected to come in at 3.6%, up from 3.2% in July while core is estimated to decline to 4.3% from 4.7% prior.  On a MoM basis, headline CPI is estimated at 0.6%, up from 0.2%, while core is expected to remain steady at 0.2%.

• On Thursday, we get PPI, which is generally seen as a leading indicator for CPI. PPI final demand YoY is estimated at 1.3%, up from 0.8% in July. Excluding food and energy, PPI YoY is estimated 2.2%. On a MoM basis, PPI excluding food and energy is estimated at 0.2%.

• August Advance retail sales are estimated to be up 0.1% MoM, down from 0.7% in July. Advance retail sales excluding Auto and Gas are estimated to be down -0.1%, compared to up 1.0% in July.
• Other data this week includes August import price index (est. +0.3%, prior 0.4%) September Empire Manufacturing index (est. -10.0, prior -19.0),  August capacity utilization (est. 79.3%, unchanged), and preliminary September U. Mich consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
• Equities: Oracle (ORCL0, Adobe (ADBE), Lennar (LEN) and Copoart (CPRT) release earnings this week.

Market Summary – Returns and Yields

Definitions, sources, and disclaimers

Definitions:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
• GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
• The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
• The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.  

Important Disclosures:

The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Amerant Investments, Inc. or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

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