- Last Friday, we got our first look at June macro data with the employment report. Nonfarm payrolls were 206k compared to estimate of 190k and revised prior of 218k. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, average hourly earnings were up 0.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY, in line with estimates.
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- We also got the Fed minutes from June’s Fed meeting, giving more color on the change in the dot plot and views from members of the FOMC. “The path of the federal funds rate implied by futures prices shifted a bit lower over the intermeeting period and indicated one and one-half 25 basis point cuts by year-end. This shift appeared to reflect mostly changes in perceived risks rather than base-case expectations because the modal path implied by options was virtually unchanged and remained consistent with, at most, one cut this year”. Overall, the Fed’s cautious stance reflects its commitment to curbing inflation while closely monitoring economic developments.
- Stocks continued to rally as major indexes set new all-time highs in a shortened week due to the Fourth of July holiday. In Tech news, Tesla (TSLA) led the “Mag 7” as initial optimism following peers Nio & Li Auto delivery data turned into a full blown rally after the company released their own figures of 443k worldwide deliveries for the quarter which came above the 439k expected from analyst and showed that although the figure marks a 4.8% yearly contraction, it likely also signals a bottom as it translates a 14.7% growth from Q1. In Pharma news, Novo Disk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) started the week pressured as President Biden’s demand for lower prices in popular diabetes and weight loss products from the companies stirred investor concern, Eli Lilly received positive news later in the week as US regulators cleared a major hurdle for sales of its new Alzheimer’s drug.
- In other corporate news, Paramount Global (PARA) was reported to be shopping it’s BET TV Network for approximately US $1.7 bn which is significantly lower than the US $3 bn it paid for the network in 2001 and Sunpower (SPWR) shares sold off after a SEC subpoena was issued related to accounting issues. In M&A and equity allocation news, Blackrock (BLK) acquired private market data provider leader Prequin for US $3.2 bn as it plans on launching private market ETF vehicles, popular Gamestop (GME) retail investor Keith Gill revealed a 6.6% or US $625m stake in e-commerce company Chewy (CHWY) and Jeff Bezos sold an additional US $5 bn in Amazon (AMZN) stock bringing year to date divestments to US $13.5 bn.
The Week Ahead
- For the week ahead, we get CPI and PPI data for June. Estimates for CPI are to be up 0.1% MoM and 3.1% YoY. On a core basis, excluding food and energy, CPI is forecast to be higher by 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY.
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- Later in the week, we also get PPI data for June. PPI Final demand is estimated to be up 0.1% MoM and 2.3% YoY, compared to prior month decline of -0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. PPI ex food and energy is estimated to be up by 0.2% for June, and 2.5% YoY. This compares to May actuals of 0.0% and 2.3%, respectively.
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- Next week JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BNY Mellon (BK), Pepsi (PEP), Conagra (CAG), Delta (DAL), Fastenal (FAST) are all set to kick off Q2 earnings season reporting.
Market Summary – Returns and Yields
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For additional insights, be sure to check out last week’s blog post.
Definitions, sources, and disclaimers
Definitions:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
- The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
- The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).
Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.
Important Disclosures:
The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Amerant Investments, Inc. or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
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