The AM Call: It’s Complicated: GDP Surprises, FOMC Awaits

• Last week was another solid one in the markets, with the S&P 500 hitting another all-time high and bonds mostly steady on the back of a positive 4Q23 GDP surprise and further moderation in inflation.  The week ahead will provide further clarity on rates and the economy, with Fed Chair Powell’s commentary after the January FOMC along with the January jobs report on Friday.
• The biggest surprise last week was 4Q23 advance GDP estimate of 3.3%, far better than the estimate for 2.0%, although slowing from the blistering 4.9% pace in 3Q23.

• Meanwhile, PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric continued to moderate. On a YoY basis, core PCE rose by 2.9%, better than the estimate for 3.0% and the prior of 3.2%. On a MoM basis, core PCE was up 0.2%, in-line with estimates and up slightly from 0.1%.

• Durable goods orders excluding transportation were better than expected at 0.6%, vs. estimate of 0.2% and prior of 0.5%. Personal income matched estimates.

• Major equities indexes were modestly high last week, as the surprisingly strong GDP release showed the resilience of the US economy while Q4 earning reports mostly pleased investor expectations. In earnings, Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), Progressive (PGR), Raytheon (RTX) AND ASML (ASML) were among the highlights, while Tesla (TSLA), 3M (MMM), Humana (HUM), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Northern Suffolk (NSC) were the biggest disappointments. Netflix’s result showed the companies password crackdown is working, as 13.1 million new subscribers signed up vs. 8.9 million expected. Tesla’s revenue grew 3.5% YoY, missing estimates by 1.7%, and the gross margin of 17.6% was also below expectations, while Elon Musk stated that volume growth for the year will be notably lower than last year.
• In other corporate news, Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) shares plummeted after firing its CFO and announcing an investigation into fraudulent accounting practices, while Boeing (BA) saw continued negative press as the FAA halted the planned increase production of its 737 Max a day after United Airlines CEO announced it was not expecting Boeing to meet its delivery obligations.

The Week Ahead

• The week ahead will include the January FOMC meeting, where no change in rates is expected, and there will be no update to its “dot plot” forecast. However, markets are expecting Fed Chair Powell to lay out a road map to the Fed’s thinking for cutting rates this year: how low and for how long does inflation need to be? What is the extent of Fed cuts likely? Markets have recalibrated rate expectations with March cut now roughly a “coin flip”.

• We also get January jobs report after the Fed meeting. Change in non-farm payrolls is expected to be 180K, down from 216K in December. The unemployment rate is forecast at 3.8%, up from 3.7% prior, and average hourly earnings are expected to be 4.1% YoY, unchanged.

• This is also another big week for earnings. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), UPS (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), Mondelez (MDLZ), Mastercard (MA), Boeing (BA), Honeywell (HON), Qualcomm (QCOM), Altria (MO), Pfizer (PFE), Abbvie (ABBV), Bristol Meyers (BMY) and Roper (ROP) are all set to report.

Market Summary – Returns and Yields

• Large cap equities rose last week, while small caps were relatively flat. Bonds were mixed.

• Equity market leadership through the first three weeks of 2024 is Communications and Tech.

Definitions, sources, and disclaimers

Definitions:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
• GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
• The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
• The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.  

Important Disclosures:

The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Amerant Investments, Inc. or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

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