By: Ron Shuffield, CEO, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty
As we enter the midpoint of 2023, South Florida’s residential real estate market continues to experience both positive and challenging news.
The just-released May 2023 results reveal that housing inventory rose slightly from the previous month of April and is certainly above the available inventory in May 2022. But, we are still experiencing a housing shortage (defined as having fewer homes for sale than buyers who want them, particularly single-family homes).
With South Florida’s population continuing to grow, demand for all types of housing continues. From starter homes/condos to the most luxurious estates, demand continues to outpace supply at virtually every level.
The following outlines key takeaways from Miami-Dade’s dynamic residential real estate market:
- The shortage of single-family homes across all price points is reflected in that the category represents only 32% of available inventory for sale, which means that 68% of available inventory for sale are condominiums.
- Whereas not long ago the mix of residential sales on any given month was close to 50/50 between single-family and condos, in May 2023, 85% of sales were condos.
- Single-family homes are very desirous, in short supply, and consequently are being snatched up quickly.
- One positive takeaway is that inventory is actually starting to increase since the COVID housing rush. While inventory increased 16% in single-family homes from May ’22 to May ’23, we do see absorption increasing again. The combination of so many homes being absorbed during COVID, with little new construction is making it challenging for supply to catch up with demand.
- Another remarkable statistic from the May numbers is that the median price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade reached an all-time high — $630,000. Just three years ago, in May 2020, the median price was $380,000. Over the three years, we’ve experienced a 65% increase!
- And it’s not just single-family homes. The median price for all properties (combined homes and condos) in Miami-Dade is $495,000 compared to $330,000 in April 2020, an increase of 50%
- While COVID turbo-charged the market, we have been on an upswing in pricing over the past 12 years. In April 2011, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the overall median price of a residence in Miami-Dade was $128,000. The $495,000 combined median price today reflects a staggering 287% increase over the past 12 years!
These are but a few of the interesting metrics reflected in the May 2023 results. As we look at the second half of 2023, we believe that both inventory and sales will continue to increase throughout the remainder of the year, as what inventory comes to the market will certainly be absorbed.
We are migrating from the overheated “seller’s market” which dominated the COVID era to a more balanced environment, which is positive for everyone. Overheated markets are unsustainable and not healthy. A small sign of that is the days-on-market metric, which in May ’23 was 56 days, up from 37 days in the same period last year. Again, signs of balance and health.
We are also seeing great value in condos built between 2007 and 2017. These condos feature high-impact, floor-to-ceiling glass, and significant in-building amenities.
A sign of our growth, we are also seeing more teardowns, with in-fill developers acquiring 40-50 year old homes and condos and repursuing them to a variety of new townhomes or condominiums.
Census reports note that 18 states have lost population in the past year, with many coming to Florida, which is the country’s fastest-growing state.
We live in an amazing place, and clearly, many more individuals and families are discovering that. The numbers don’t lie!
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