- It was another week of volatility in the markets, as headlines focused on tariffs and jobs. In tariff news, the Administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada briefly, then backtracked and announced widespread delays and exemptions shortly thereafter, defaulting back to positions contained in the USMCA, our existing broad trade agreement with Canada and Mexico (NAFTA 2.0). Meanwhile, China imposed tariffs on some U.S. agricultural goods as the trade wars heat up, the U.S. paused military support for Ukraine, and President Trump declined to rule out recession as a possibility for the U.S. economy.
- As a result, equities moved lower yet again, crossing into technical correction territory from their highs, and eliminating the “Trump Bump” post-election gains, as uncertainty regarding tariffs and continued worries regarding the strength of US economy shook investor confidence.
- On that note, we highlight that GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed has dropped sharply to -2.4% for 1Q25 real GDP estimate while last week’s employment report was also weaker than estimated as nonfarm payrolls climbed by 151,000 for February, below the estimate for 160,000 in February. January was revised down to 125,000 (from 143,000). The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, worse than the estimate for 4.0%, while average hourly earnings climbed 4.0% YoY, vs. 4.0% estimate.
- In earnings, Broadcom (AVGO), Okta (OKTA) and Sea Ltd (SE) posted stellar results, while Crowdstrike (CRWD), Marvell Tech (MRVL), MongoDB (MDB) and Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) significantly underwhelmed. In corporate news, Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) announced plans to invest $100 bn in chip production in the United States, Nvidia (NVDA) shares reacted negatively to developments in Singapore after reports of by illegally sold Nvidia chips with a final destination in China, Tesla (TSLA) shipments in China fell 49% on a YoY basis in February, AppLovin (APP) was reported to be in talks to sell its gaming division, and Walgreens (WBA) agreed to be acquired and taken private by Sycamore Partners for $10 bn or $11.45/sh.
The Week Ahead
- In equities, Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), UiPath (PATH), Dollar General (DG), Docusign (DOCU) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are among companies set to report.
- For this week in macro data, the focus will be on inflation. February CPI is expected to cool off slightly, with headline CPI at 0.3% MoM down from 0.5% in January and core down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On a YoY basis, core CPI is estimated to 3.2%, down from 3.3% in January.
- After the CPI data, we also get PPI for February. It is expected to ease from January, although remain elevated.
- On Friday, we get preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations for March. Sentiment is expected to decline, while inflation expectations ease slightly. While these tend to be volatile figures, the Fed does pay attention to long term inflation expectations in setting rate policy.
Market Summary – Returns and Yields
- Bonds are higher for the YTD, while the S&P 500 is down. Oil and the dollar are also lower to start the year, while gold and European equities are up.
For additional insights, be sure to check out last week’s blog post.
Definitions, sources, and disclaimers
This content is being published by Amerant Investments, Inc (Amerant Investments), a dually registered broker-dealer and investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and member of FINRA/SIPC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill, endorsement, or approval. Amerant Investments is an affiliate of Amerant Bank.
Definitions:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
- The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
- The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).
Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.
Important Disclosures:
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered a customized recommendation, personalized investment advice offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or investment strategy. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own situation before making any investment decision.
This information is obtained by AMTI from third-party providers from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to changes in market conditions. By using such information, you release and exonerate AMTI from any responsibility for damages, direct or indirect, that may result from such use. Consult the issuer of any investment for the most up-to-date and accurate information.
All references to performance refer to historical data. There could be benchmarks used that do not reflect the performance of funds or other products with similar objectives
Presentation does not apply in jurisdictions where its use has not been approved. Some products or strategies may be complex or unusual. Make sure you have a clear understanding of the products before investing. Investments may have different tax consequences in different jurisdictions and will depend on the circumstances. AMTI does not offer legal or tax advice, please consult your legal, CPA, or other tax professional regarding your situation.
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Additional Risks:
- Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
- There is no assurance the Fund will pay distributions in any particular amount, if at all. Any distributions the Fund makes will be at the discretion of the Fund’s Board of Trustees
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- The value of the investments varies and therefore the amount received at the time of sale might be higher or lower than was originally invested. Actual returns might be better or worse than the ones shown in this informative material.
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- Funds may invest in securities that are rated below investment grade by rating agencies or that would be rated below investment grade if they were rated. Below investment grade securities, which are often referred to as “junk,” have predominantly speculative characteristics with respect to the issuer’s capacity to pay interest and repay principal. They may also be illiquid and difficult to value
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